In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Harry Enten of CNN examined party registration data both nationwide and in battleground states. Based on historical data, Enten believes the evidence indicates Republicans will likely win.
“In November 2020, you saw Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage. Look at where we are today. Yes, more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats than Republicans, but it’s now just 44% to 40%. They’ve got a four-point gap. Republicans have cut that Democratic advantage in half in such a short period of time,” Enten said.

“The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win,” Enten explained.
CNN’s Manu Raju asked: “What have you found about how voters are leaning at this point compared to 2020?”

“Yeah, I mean, the voter registration fresh numbers—if you want a stat that Republicans absolutely love, it’s this one, right? Pennsylvania voter registration, you register by party in that state. You go back to November 2020, you see Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage. Look at where we are today. Yes, more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats than Republicans, but it’s now just 44% to 40%. They’ve got a four-point gap. Republicans have cut that Democratic advantage in half in such a short period of time. They’ve gone out, registered voters, and there are folks who have come over to their side who were previously registered Democrats,” Enten said.

Enten added: “The question is: Where are they picking up ground? This, to me, says it all. If you look at Pennsylvania counties where the GOP has gained in registration, in counties where less than 50% of the population is non-college white voters, Republicans have gained just a point. But in areas where over 50% are non-college whites, look at this—Republicans have gained six points on average.”
“They’re picking up ground in the areas you’d expect: non-college white-dominated areas, coal country in the northeast, southwest outside of Pittsburgh. The bottom line is, the registration trends we’ve been seeing over the last few cycles — with Republicans dominating among non-college white voters — are very much showing up in party registration,” Enten added.

Raju jumped back in and asked: “What does this tell us nationally? Are we seeing this in other battleground states? Is this changing the registration advantage for Democrats?”

“Alright, so if this was just Pennsylvania, where we’re seeing this trend, I don’t think we’d necessarily be doing a segment on this if it weren’t part of a larger picture,” Enten began.

“There are fewer voters registered as Democrats across the battleground states where you have party registration. Not every state has party registration — Wisconsin doesn’t, Georgia doesn’t, Michigan doesn’t — but in the battleground states where you do have party registration, there are now fewer registered Democrats in Arizona, fewer registered Democrats in Nevada, and fewer registered Democrats in North Carolina. So what we’re seeing in Pennsylvania is being mirrored in other states as well. More folks are registering as Republicans compared to Democrats,” Enten said.

“But we’re looking at the battleground states, so let’s take this out nationally, right? This is party registration, but let’s look at party identification. Party registration is when you’re actually registered with a party. Party ID is when you say, “I feel like a Democrat today” or “I feel like a Republican.” They’re correlated, but they’re not exactly the same. But I think it gets at the trend that’s going on here,” Enten continued.

Enten decalred, “Party ID nationally, you go to October/November of 2016, Democrats had a three-point advantage. You go four years ago, Democrats had a six avenge. Look at where we are today. Republicans with a one-point advantage, a very different picture, very much mirroring what we see in the party registration numbers in those key battleground states, and Pennsylvania in particular. The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win.”

Enten concluded: “If there’s one little nugget that I think Republicans are really helpful for this party ID and this party registration data, it really points in a good direction for them and for Donald Trump.”